Why Old Media is Dead

Briefly stated, the Gell-Mann Amnesia effect works as follows. You open the newspaper to an article on some subject you know well. In Murray's case, physics. In mine, show business. You read the article and see the journalist has absolutely no understanding of either the facts or the issues. Often, the article is so wrong it actually presents the story backward-reversing cause and effect. I call these the "wet streets cause rain" stories. Paper's full of them.

In any case, you read with exasperation or amusement the multiple errors in a story-and then turn the page to national or international affairs, and read with renewed interest as if the rest of the newspaper was somehow more accurate about far-off Palestine than it was about the story you just read. You turn the page, and forget what you know.

--"Why Speculate." Michael Crichton, 2002

Why You Should Never Talk to the Police

1. There is no way it can help. (Any beneficial statements are hearsay.)
2. If you are guilty (and even if you are innocent) you may admit your guilt with no benefit in return.
3. Even if you are innocent and deny your guilt and mostly tell the truth, you may get carried away and tell some little lie or make some little mistake that will hang you.
4. Even if you are innocent and only tell the truth, you will always give the police some information that can be used to help convict you.
5. Even if you are innocent and only tell the truth, and do not tell the police anything incriminating, there is still a chance that your answers can be used against you if the police do not recall your testimony with 100% accuracy.
6. Even if you are innocent and only tell the truth and do not tell the police anything incriminating and the entire interview is videotaped, your answers can still be used against you if the police have any evidence, even mistaken or unreliable evidence, indicating that any of you statements are false.

1. You are not innocent of everything.
2. People are inherently honest.
3. People are stupid.
4. People like to tell their story.
5. Police are experts at interviews (you are going to lose).
6. Police are expert witnesses.

Podcasts

I started listening to real (amateur) podcasts... these people need to learn brevity and how to be succinct. The last one that I listened to was 40 minutes long and only made 3 points.

I've noticed the same thing on call-in podcasts. Callers go on and on and on to say something that could have taken one sentence.

The Paradox of Choice: Why More Is Less

Two effects of too much choice: produces paralysis, less satisfaction.

Best example: there used to be only one kind of blue jeans. Now there are hundreds. If you pick one, it will be better than the old style. But you will feel bad about it because the new jeans are not perfect.

With all of these options available, my expectation about how good a pair of jeans went up. ... Adding options to peoples lives can't help but increase the expectations people have about how good those options will be, and what that's going to produce is less satisfaction with results, even when they are good results. Nobody in the world of marketing knows this.

The secret to happiness is low expectations.

When there is no (or little choice) and you are dissatisfied with the result, who is responsible? The world is.

When there is much choice and you are dissatisfied with the result, who is responsible? You are. You could have done better. With so much choice, there is no excuse for failure. People met with this blame themselves. High standards lead to disappointment, disappointment leads to self blame.

Why choice makes people miserable:

1. Regret and anticipated regret
2. Opportunity costs
3. Escalation of expectations
4. Self-blame

• TED: Barry Schwartz: The paradox of choice
• Google TechTalks April 27, 2006 Barry Schwartz
• Wiki: The Paradox of Choice: Why More Is Less
• VPL: The paradox of choice : why more is less / Barry Schwartz.

Agile Vancouver Notes

Notes from Agile Vancouver: Much Ado About Agile III (2008)

User Stories (née Use Cases) Template

As a ROLE
I want FEATURE
So that BENEFIT

Abuse Stories

As a hacker
I want to steal credit card numbers
So that I can make fraudulent purchases

Acceptance Test Templates

Test: business rule
Given: initial condition
When: event
Then: outcome

See What’s in a Story?

David Hussman

I was impressed by David Hussman, unfortunately his website is barren. There are some links to presentations if you hunt for them.

Firefox 3 Settings

Plugins

• Adblock Plus
  • block list (subscribe)
  • block list (by class) (subscribe)
• DownloadHelper
• DownThemAll!
• ErrorZilla Mod
• FEBE
• Forecastfox
• FxIF
• iMacros
• Image Zoom
• Live HTTP headers
• PDF Download
• RDown - Rapidshare Downloader
• Torbutton
• Tree Style Tab
• User Agent Switcher
• Web Developer
• Greasemonkey
  • GoogleImagesSafesearchOff
  • SecureSite
  • Blogger large post editor
  • Flickr Link Original Images
  • Gmail: highlighted rows
  • Gmail: attachment icons
  • Gmail: folders for gmail

Themes

• Qute

about:config

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network.cookie.lifetimePolicy	2
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How to Drive Your Competition Crazy

This was a great little marketing book for entrepreneurs. It detailed how to choose and position your product for maximal effect.

The major points of the book (70%) of the content were:

1. Know your market
   "If you know the enemy and know yourself you need not fear the results of a hundred battles."
   "If ignorant both of your enemy and yourself, you are certain to be in peril."
2. Do what is best for your customers
   "The good fighters of old first put themselves beyond the possibility of defeat, and then waited for an opportunity of defeating the enemy."
3. Choose your battles (and enemies) to ensure you are always winning
   "Victorious warriors win first and then go to war, while defeated warriors go to war first and then seek to win."
   "He who knows when he can fight and when he cannot, will be victorious."

There were marginal points (15%) about:

• Motivating employees and customers to become evangelists (These were really side-effect of #2 and #3)
  "Regard your soldiers as your children, and they will follow you into the deepest valleys; look on them as your own beloved sons, and they will stand by you even unto death."
• Starting small (with focus)
  "Opportunities multiply as they are seized."
  "Pretend inferiority and encourage his arrogance."

There was some other minor points, but the above points account for ~85% of the book.

They seem obvious, but most companies don't follow point #2 and get bogged down in something. I see it mostly when customers are treated as post-sale liability, instead of as a relationship asset. Others get stuck in creeping feature-ism, spending time and effort making sure that they have some check-boxes filled in for their product, even though it doesn't matter to the end user.

I found point #3 to be interesting. By being an upstart, you can define your success on your own terms, and you can use your victories as motivation to improve.