Monday, April 20, 2009

Why You Should Never Talk to the Police

  1. There is no way it can help. (Any beneficial statements are hearsay.)
  2. If you are guilty (and even if you are innocent) you may admit your guilt with no benefit in return.
  3. Even if you are innocent and deny your guilt and mostly tell the truth, you may get carried away and tell some little lie or make some little mistake that will hang you.
  4. Even if you are innocent and only tell the truth, you will always give the police some information that can be used to help convict you.
  5. Even if you are innocent and only tell the truth, and do not tell the police anything incriminating, there is still a chance that your answers can be used against you if the police do not recall your testimony with 100% accuracy.
  6. Even if you are innocent and only tell the truth and do not tell the police anything incriminating and the entire interview is videotaped, your answers can still be used against you if the police have any evidence, even mistaken or unreliable evidence, indicating that any of you statements are false.
  1. You are not innocent of everything.
  2. People are inherently honest.
  3. People are stupid.
  4. People like to tell their story.
  5. Police are experts at interviews (you are going to lose).
  6. Police are expert witnesses.

Monday, February 23, 2009

Podcasts

I started listening to real (amateur) podcasts... these people need to learn brevity and how to be succinct. The last one that I listened to was 40 minutes long and only made 3 points.

I've noticed the same thing on call-in podcasts. Callers go on and on and on to say something that could have taken one sentence.

Sunday, February 8, 2009

The Paradox of Choice: Why More Is Less

Two effects of too much choice: produces paralysis, less satisfaction.

Best example: there used to be only one kind of blue jeans. Now there are hundreds. If you pick one, it will be better than the old style. But you will feel bad about it because the new jeans are not perfect.

With all of these options available, my expectation about how good a pair of jeans went up. ... Adding options to peoples lives can't help but increase the expectations people have about how good those options will be, and what that's going to produce is less satisfaction with results, even when they are good results. Nobody in the world of marketing knows this.
The secret to happiness is low expectations.

When there is no (or little choice) and you are dissatisfied with the result, who is responsible? The world is.

When there is much choice and you are dissatisfied with the result, who is responsible? You are. You could have done better. With so much choice, there is no excuse for failure. People met with this blame themselves. High standards lead to disappointment, disappointment leads to self blame.

Why choice makes people miserable:
  1. Regret and anticipated regret
  2. Opportunity costs
  3. Escalation of expectations
  4. Self-blame

Thursday, November 6, 2008

Agile Vancouver Notes

Notes from Agile Vancouver: Much Ado About Agile III (2008)

User Stories (née Use Cases) Template

As a ROLE
I want FEATURE
So that BENEFIT

Abuse Stories

As a hacker
I want to steal credit card numbers
So that I can make fraudulent purchases

Acceptance Test Templates

Test: business rule
Given: initial condition
When: event
Then: outcome

See What’s in a Story?

David Hussman

I was impressed by David Hussman, unfortunately his website is barren. There are some links to presentations if you hunt for them.

Wednesday, January 9, 2008

How to Drive Your Competition Crazy

This was a great little marketing book for entrepreneurs. It detailed how to choose and position your product for maximal effect.

The major points of the book (70%) of the content were:
  1. Know your market
    "If you know the enemy and know yourself you need not fear the results of a hundred battles."
    "If ignorant both of your enemy and yourself, you are certain to be in peril."
  2. Do what is best for your customers
    "The good fighters of old first put themselves beyond the possibility of defeat, and then waited for an opportunity of defeating the enemy."
  3. Choose your battles (and enemies) to ensure you are always winning
    "Victorious warriors win first and then go to war, while defeated warriors go to war first and then seek to win."
    "He who knows when he can fight and when he cannot, will be victorious."
There were marginal points (15%) about:

There was some other minor points, but the above points account for ~85% of the book.

They seem obvious, but most companies don't follow point #2 and get bogged down in something. I see it mostly when customers are treated as post-sale liability, instead of as a relationship asset. Others get stuck in creeping feature-ism, spending time and effort making sure that they have some check-boxes filled in for their product, even though it doesn't matter to the end user.

I found point #3 to be interesting. By being an upstart, you can define your success on your own terms, and you can use your victories as motivation to improve.

Monday, December 24, 2007

The Costs of Living: How Market Freedom Erodes the Best Things in Life

I have to admit that I never finished reading this book. It was taken out of my hands by the great library strike of '07. I made it about half-way, but I found that the book had lost steam and was only throwing out an interesting anecdote every dozen pages by the middle. If you are curious about it, around 50% of the book's ideas are in the first chapter (or the second, I can't remember); the rest is just fodder for interest.

The thesis was that market freedoms erode utility.

In a free market, buyers vote with their dollars to signal to sellers what they want. If consumers want baggy pants, then sellers who make baggy pants get rewarded. If one seller makes the baggiest pants, then they will sell more, because consumers want the baggiest pants. If one seller can make baggy pants for less, they earn more profit either by selling more baggy pants because their's have a lower price, or by retaining more profit per (g-)unit.

This all works pretty well, but micro-economics is built on a couple of major assumptions:

  • Rationality: a consumer chooses between alternatives to maximize utility assuming:
    • perfect knowledge: aware of all alternatives and their trade-offs in utility and price
    • competence: ability to evaluate alternatives
    • transitivity: if a=b and b=c then a=c
  • Ordinality: choices can be ranked by level of utility

Swartz doesn't addresses these assumptions directly, but it's an underlying theme that some of them are false throughout his work.

Perfect knowledge is perhaps the simplest assumption to attack. Consumers simply do not have perfect knowledge, and produces regularly take advantage of this (otherwise their would be no need for advertising). The clearest example in the book was about restaurant kitchens. Imagine two restaurants where they appear identically equal in utility, except for the fact that one has a spotless kitchen, and the other has a dirty one. The cost of maintaining the clean kitchen puts the one restaurant at a disadvantage. Customers don't see the kitchen, so they don't know about it. Over time, the restaurant with the dirty kitchen will be more successful since it doesn't have the associated cleaning cost.

Bruce Schneier talked about lack of rationality (and asymmetrical information theory and The Market for Lemons) and how it relates to computer security in A Security Market for Lemons -- companies that spend R&D time on real security products get undercut by ones who don't because the consumers can't tell the difference.

The lack of rationality of consumers leads to a situation where economic profit becomes the only driver for producers. Making the best product doesn't matter if consumers don't have knowledge and if they can't competently evaluate alternatives. It becomes a game of who can convince consumer that they offer the best utility while cutting as many corners as possible. Ultimately, the market rewards whomever makes the most money, not who serves consumers best, so the producers race to the bottom.

The pursuit and exploitation of individual advantage in the service of profit is built into the ideology of the market. Those who fail to capitalize on their advantages will earn less money, or be fired by their bosses, or be driven out of business by their competitors.

You can see this in poisoned pet foods and leaded childrens' toys. Brands have become little more than advertising as everything is manufactured by outsourced low-cost producers.

The early part of the book focuses on attacking the application of market theory to social institutions. It argues that schooling, medicine and even baseball are debased when they are understood in terms of profit-making.

The medicine example is fairly long, but the gist of it was that doctors set up HMOs to serve their patients better. These got perverted by business types in the race to the bottom (the ones who didn't race went out of business because they weren't cost competitive with the ones that did), and they are left with the disaster of a health care system in the U.S. I don't remember the sport example.

Education is probably easier to explain. It talks about how the desire to quantify education has forced a market mentality into it. The need to quantify lead to metrics, and those metrics became twisted from being diagnostics to being the end goal. It goes like this: we need a standard test to asses education levels, then there is talk about evaluating teachers (and schools) based on how their students' score on the test (which was not its intent), so the teachers (and admin) respond by teaching to the test to maximize scores instead of working on general education. In the end, the standardized test score becomes the only thing that matters. This happened a lot at my old University in its quest to stay on top of the Macleans' University Rankings.

Another unfortunate example is how these metrics can extinguish the point of the activities. Students get rewarded based on number of books read, or something, so reading more (quantity) becomes the only goal. Students pick short books -- ones that are easy to read -- and read them as fast as possible. They don't think about what they read, they don't enjoy it, they don't reflect. They just read as fast as they can. The extrinsic reward, whatever it is, ultimately extinguishes the intrinsic motivation of the student.

Joel Spolsky talked about The Econ 101 Management Method to say the same things about software project management. Extrinsic motivation destroys intrinsic motivation, and what's worse is that your metric is never the thing that you really care about, but your employees end up only caring about the metric (since that's how they are measured).

Robert Austin, in his book Measuring and Managing Performance in Organizations, says there are two phases when you introduce new performance metrics. At first, you actually get what you wanted, because nobody has figured out how to cheat. In the second phase, you actually get something worse, as everyone figures out the trick to maximizing the thing that you’re measuring, even at the cost of ruining the company.